Recently, BBC Radio 4’s File on 4 aired "The Final Battle: Veterans Fighting for Compensation”. The programme gave a striking insight into the hurdles faced by British military veterans and service personnel seeking compensation for injuries and mental health issues arising from their service. If you haven’t listened, please do so here.
[23 July 2024 update: If you read the first version of this post, we've removed the sections comparing MOD vs DWP claim processing times for a future article.]
The Veteran Law Project are analysing the Ministry of Defence's statements in the programme. This is important because, annually, 10,000 service personnel and veterans submit a claim under the Armed Forces Compensation Scheme (AFCS) and War Pension Scheme (WPS). We wish to help public discourse on the schemes. Part 1 of our analysing the MOD's statements in the programme is available here. Our initial response to the programme is here.
This post looks into the MOD claim that, "on average, illness and injury claims are cleared within 73 working days”.
- Where has that figure come from?
- Is it correct?
- What is it overlooking?
Summary of our findings and requests to the MOD
Between April 2023 - March 2024, average illness and injury claims took on average 140 working days to clear, twice as long as the 73 working days the MOD stated to File on 4
Please explain the 73 working days claim and why our analysis is wrong
Implement a policy of candour: "the quality of being honest and telling the truth, especially about a difficult or embarrassing subject”
Why is this project important?
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) runs two compensation/benefit/pension schemes for those injured in the military: the Armed Forces Compensation Scheme (AFCS) and the War Pension Scheme. The latest annual statistics, published on 18 July 2023, cover 2023/24 and are available at: AFCS and War Pension Scheme.
The "File on 4" programme was initially timed set coincide closely with the annual statistics' release. However, the general election announcement delayed their publication. It remains unclear exactly when the MOD provided its statements to the BBC for this programme, yet it's reasonable to deduce that officials at the time were aware of the most recent statistics. Thus, our analysis spans both the 2022/23 and 2023/24 statistical datasets.
We believe a more in-depth analysis is required, at all levels from service users to support organisations to national trends. We would like to assist any organisations working in this area, particularly those skilled at data analysis, especially regarding pensions, benefits and legal decisions. To discuss ideas, please get in touch via our contact page.
Regarding the File on 4 transcript (available here), it was transcribed from the programme recording and not derived from an original script. The BBC has assured us that this transcript accurately reflects the statements made by the MOD. The time in brackets is the quote’s location in the programme.
MOD statement 2
“…on average, illness and injury claims are cleared
within 73 working days” (10 min, 55 sec)
That is untrue
Between April 2023 - March 2024, first/initial illness and injury claims
took on average 140 working days to clear, twice as long as the MOD claimed
The AFCS 2022/23 annual statistics are available here.
In the Excel spreadsheet (also available via the clickable image on the right), under Table 6, Column S, you'll see that the median AFCS clearance time was 73 working days.
It is almost certain that this is where the MOD statement came from.
So the MOD quote was correct? Well, no. And for a few reasons.
What is meant by 73 "working days"?
The MOD refers to "working days" and not to actual days. That makes sense from an organisational perspective. It helps them allocate resources, manage workflows and set targets. We'll come back to targets and KPIs in a future blog post.
But no-one in regular life talks about how long something takes in terms of working days; "Hey, I'll come and stay with you for 2 working days. I'll arrive on Thursday morning and leave on Monday morning". That just sounds weird.
The MOD should make it clear on the first page of the annual statistics
what "working days" means from a claimant's perspective
The first mention of working days in the AFCS summary report is on page 8, under "Clearance times". That section translates median working days into actual months. See image below (from 2022/23 annual report).
So, what's wrong with the 73 working days claim?
The MOD said to the BBC: “those who have an illness or injury as a result of service receive the compensation they are entitled to, and that on average, illness and injury claims are cleared within 73 working days”.
Firstly, that statement suggests that claims always take 73 working days to process. Their duration fluctuates from year to year, with 2022/23 AFCS clearance times being 30% above 2021/22 (2021/22: 56 vs 2022/23: 73). But we must be careful about delving too much into comparing single items between two neighbouring years. Data sets are a snapshot at a particular time, sometimes later requiring updating upon a new statistical release or significant changes due to changed statistical processes. Longer term trends are the thing to look at, which we will write about in the future.
The two charts below show AFCS and War Pension clearance times (working days) from the 2023/24 annual statistics.
For now, let's highlight that 73 working days is likely to be based solely on AFCS claims. Ok, the majority of claims are submitted under AFCS, but by no means all of them.
In 2022/23:
- 20% of illness/injury claims were submitted under the War Pension Scheme (War Pension: 2754 vs AFCS: 8306)
- War Pension first claim clearance time? 165 working days (see image below). That's twice as long as for AFCS.
- If we combine AFCS and War Pension median clearance times for 2022/23, we estimate the average was nearer 90 working days. That's more than 20% worse than claimed.
Table 1 (above): AFCS Annual Statistics 2023/24, Table 6: Claim clearance times (working days)
Table 2 (above): War Pension Scheme data, 2023/24, Table 2: Clearance times for War Pension first claims (working days)
What data should the MOD have used?
We won’t criticise the MOD for focusing on the AFCS scheme, which those serving today are vastly more likely to apply under. But the MOD didn't make it clear that's what they were doing. This is important when there are people still serving with a pre-2005 "illness or injury as a result of service" and eligible to claim a War Pension upon discharge. And a significant proportion of the 2 million veterans in the UK could have a potential claims under the War Pension Scheme (with no time limit on claims, unlike with AFCS).
Ignoring the significance of War Pension claims is foolish and perhaps intentionally misleading.
Whilst AFCS and the War Pension Scheme have separate legislation, they are both managed by the same department, Defence Business Services - Veterans UK. Appeals for both go to the same tribunal chamber (the War Pensions and Armed Forces Compensation Chamber).
Veterans UK has limited resources. If, without additional funding, it prioritises one area of work then other areas will suffer. For a few years, they’ve focused on reducing AFCS clearance times. When writing this article, we assumed that we'd see longer War Pension processing but that wasn't the case for 2022/23.
However, in 2023/24 things changed...
What do the latest statistical releases tell us?
Looking at the 2023/24 annual statistics (AFCS here and War Pension here):
- AFCS initial claims: 7090
- AFCS clearance time: 115 working days
- War Pension first claims: 3306
- War Pension clearance time: 196 working days
- Average AFCS/WPS initial/first claim clearance time: 140 working days (28 weeks)
How did we come up with that last figure?
- Total number of AFCS + WPS claims: 7090 + 3306 = 10396
- Total days to process those claims: 7090 x 115 + 3306 x 196 = 1463326
- Average duration from those two figures: 1463326 / 10396 = 140 working days
- We assumed that the median average best represents the average claimants' experience. If we'd used the mean, the average duration would have been even higher at 155 working days.
What does the above tell us?
Claims made for an illness or injury as a result of service
are processed under the AFCS and War Pension schemes
In 2023/24, such claims were processed, on average, within 140 working days
That's twice as long as claimed by the MOD
in their statement to BBC Radio 4's File on 4
We're super grateful! for anyone that's made it to here; thank you for engaging with this topic!
What have we overlooked or misunderstood in the above discussion? Please let us know your thoughts on Twitter @CharlieRadUK or via our Contact page
